New England coach Bill Belichick decided to take a lot of heat fourth down conversion attempt with 28 years of Wei-Jin - point lead to apply. Indianapolis, came to the dramatic re-.35-34 victory. Is it a good decision?
2:08-Left and Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion won the game for practical reasons. The conversion of 4 a.m. to 2 a.m. were successful, 60 percent of the time. Historically, the situation is 2:00 left and needed a TD and win or draw, the teams receive 53 percent of the TD when the field position. The overall probability of winning 4th Down conversion attempts, is as follows:
Statistically was the best decision to go to, and with a good amount. But these figures are the baselines for the league as a whole. Want to expect that the Colts were better than 30 percent likely to score from 34 of them, under the best chances to score from the '28 Pats. But any adjustment to the likelihood of scoring, or field increases the chance to go for it. You can play with the numbers the way you want, but it is very difficult to arrive at a realistic combination of numbers that make punting better choice. At best you could do is to wash.
2:08-Left and Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion won the game for practical reasons. The conversion of 4 a.m. to 2 a.m. were successful, 60 percent of the time. Historically, the situation is 2:00 left and needed a TD and win or draw, the teams receive 53 percent of the TD when the field position. The overall probability of winning 4th Down conversion attempts, is as follows:
Statistically was the best decision to go to, and with a good amount. But these figures are the baselines for the league as a whole. Want to expect that the Colts were better than 30 percent likely to score from 34 of them, under the best chances to score from the '28 Pats. But any adjustment to the likelihood of scoring, or field increases the chance to go for it. You can play with the numbers the way you want, but it is very difficult to arrive at a realistic combination of numbers that make punting better choice. At best you could do is to wash.
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